Live data is a little slow right now. Status
THE METHOD

How the score works

No votes and no paid ranking, just on-chain data updated every few seconds.

What we look at

  1. Volume share: which clone pulls the most money in the last 5 min. strong
  2. Wallet flow: wallets selling clone A to buy clone B, the best sign of a rotation. strong
  3. Real buyers: unique wallets, minus bundles and obvious bots. strong
  4. Bonding curve: how fast it fills and how close it is to migrating. On pump.fun the curve fills at 85 SOL; on Raydium LaunchLab we use the amount each launchpad sets (85 SOL on the default curve, more or less on some). strong
  5. Holder spread: how much the dev and the top 10 hold. strong, negative
  6. Dev history: what the dev launched before on our feed (coins, sells, rugs) when we have it. Shown as a fact, not a score.
  7. Sell pressure: big sells right after buys. negative
  8. Launch order and links: who was first, website and socials. weak

Two speeds

  • Facts go out in under 10 seconds. Clone count, OG, volume share, wallet flow, migration.
  • "Leader" waits a bit. A clone must lead by 1.5× the #2 for 3 min, with a dev that is not red. Confirmed after 10 min, curve above 50% and 2× the #2. We'd rather be late than flip-flop.

Facts

OG · Migrated · K.O. · wallet flow · clone count · curve

Estimates

Leader · Leader confirmed · Confidence: Low / Medium / High

Who is really buying

  • Holders, top 10 % and dev % are read on-chain (the bonding curve and the pool are excluded).
  • Snipers bought within 1 to 3 blocks of the launch. Bundles bought in the launch block, or were funded by the dev. We only catch the obvious cases, so we say "bundles detected" and never "no bundle".
  • Real buyers means buyers minus the dev, snipers and bundles, shown with the data coverage (full, partial or live only).
  • Wallet flow A → B counts wallets that sold clone A, then bought clone B within 10 min (over the last 30 min).

After the migration

  • Migrated first is a fact. After that we follow every migrated clone for 24h, on PumpSwap for pump.fun coins and on Raydium for LaunchLab coins (market cap, liquidity, volume) and the Winner is the one holding the biggest market cap.
  • Rugged: a real rug after migrating. −90% within 5 minutes, the pool drained, or the dev dumped.
  • Dumped: lost 90% of its peak within an hour, but not in minutes. Out of the war, not a rug.
  • Died (faded out): bled out slowly, over hours. Out of the war, not a rug.
  • Runner: ×10 within 24h and held ×5 for 10+ minutes (a single wick doesn't count). Only shown once the engine has labeled it.
  • Top MC now: the biggest market cap among the migrated clones right now, because the first one to migrate isn't always the one that lasts.

How we group clones

  • Same ticker after cleanup: case, accents, emojis, spaces and lookalike letters (0/O, 1/l, Cyrillic) are folded.
  • A war is 3+ clones launched within 2h, with at least one still alive (5%+ curve).
  • pump.fun and Raydium LaunchLab (letsbonk.fun, StonkFun, Float and the others) count as one market: the same ticker on both platforms is one war, with the same rules. Only LaunchLab coins quoted in SOL fight; the ones quoted in USDC or another token are left out for now.
  • Generic tickers (PEPE, DOG, CAT…) are on a noise list and never form a war on their own.
  • Grouping is right about 90% of the time. Admins can merge or split by hand.

What money can't buy

  • Sponsored posts and spotlights never touch the score, the status, or what the bot says.
  • No ads on war pages and no ads in bot answers about coins.
  • "Not the leader" stays on a boosted coin.

When we're wrong

It happens often enough that we put it up front. Every war is archived with our call and the result. This week our leader migrated first in 142 of 176 calls (81%). We missed 34, and 469 wars had no call.

469 finished wars had no leader call (nobody led by 1.5× long enough).

Known limits: tickers with lookalike letters, very fast rugs, bundles we only partly detect (we never say "zero bundle") and data feed outages, which is when we show "Data paused".

What nobody can know: the next tweet, the next KOL, the next whale.